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Date: Thu, 7 Jun 2001 07:04:41 -0700 (PDT)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: kamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Thu, Jun 07, 2001
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Syncrasy - Weather for Business=20
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      Syncrasy, LLC?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Ave=
nue     Suite 1314      Houston, TX 77002    www.syncrasy.com      Sales:  =
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  =09=09    Complementary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and=
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mail to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com        Data last updated  Thur=
sday, Jun 07, 2001 at 07:51AM EST    Commentary last updated  Thursday, Jun=
 07, 2001 at 08:47AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / Tr=
ue Quote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperatu=
re'     Today: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun  7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice: =
  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     =
ECAR(CTR)  74  NC  ERCOT(SP)  88  NC  FRCC(SE)  88  -1  MAAC(NE)  77  +2  M=
AIN(CTR)  74  NC  MAPP(HP)  71  -2  NPCC(NE)  75  +2  SERC(SE)  83  +2  SPP=
(SP)  83  +1  WSCC(NW)  74  NC  WSCC(RK)  77  -1  WSCC(SW)  88  +1      Ran=
ge Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   69 7=
2 69 70 77 80 85 86  Max    75 77 76 76 81 85 89 89  Min     65 68 63 62 73=
 76 82 81  Range  10 9 13 14 8 9 7 8  StD-P  2.6 2.2 5.0 3.4 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.=
2  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9    Day 1-5 Discussion:  There are two big forecas=
t questions to be answered in the short term. One concerns the future of Tr=
opical Storm Allisons remnants and the second is how strong the trough rede=
velops in the East. Allison in the short term looks fairly easy to answer. =
With the main jet stream to the North and ridges East and West, Allison lik=
ely will not move very much. I still expect more significant rainfall along=
 the Western Gulf Coast for the next 2-3 days though probably not quite as =
heavy as yesterday. Just as an aside, there is one model that pushes the re=
mnants all the way into the Ohio valley next week and another that pushes t=
hem back into the Gulf waters where it could possibly regenerate. I am disc=
ounting both solutions for now with the feeling that it will eventually fiz=
zle in Louisiana this weekend. The trough in the East should reamplify in t=
he Gre! at Lakes by Friday and then linger in the NE through the five day p=
eriod. I still expect temperatures to run a bit below normal though some wa=
rming is on the way. For the West, a strong upper low will crash into the P=
NW this weekend and move East towards the Northern Plains early next week. =
Light to moderate rain will accompany this feature. Temperatures will trend=
 strongly below normal in the North. Some cooling perhaps to near normal wi=
ll occur in the South.   Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001. =
 Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on im=
age to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  76  NC  ERCOT(SP)  87  -1  FRCC(SE)  88  NC =
 MAAC(NE)  78  NC  MAIN(CTR)  76  -1  MAPP(HP)  77  NC  NPCC(NE)  74  +1  S=
ERC(SE)  83  NC  SPP(SP)  83  -1  WSCC(NW)  75  NC  WSCC(RK)  82  NC  WSCC(=
SW)  87  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  =
SP  SW   Mean   72 77 68 69 80 79 84 84  Max    76 81 75 75 84 84 87 87  Mi=
n     67 74 62 62 77 76 81 78  Range  10 8 13 13 7 8 6 9  StD-P  2.7 2.0 4.=
5 4.2 2.4 2.8 2.0 2.2  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for=
 Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix  =
        (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  77  NC  ERCOT(SP)  89  -=
2  FRCC(SE)  88  NC  MAAC(NE)  78  +1  MAIN(CTR)  79  NC  MAPP(HP)  79  -1 =
 NPCC(NE)  73  NC  SERC(SE)  85  NC  SPP(SP)  87  -1  WSCC(NW)  68  -4  WSC=
C(RK)  84  -1  WSCC(SW)  84  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  =
HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   73 79 67 64 84 79 85 83  Max    79 83 7=
5 69 87 85 89 85  Min     68 74 61 58 81 76 83 81  Range  10 9 14 11 7 9 6 =
4  StD-P  3.1 2.8 4.7 4.1 2.0 3.3 2.2 1.3  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: =
Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.  =
 Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  78  =
NC  ERCOT(SP)  91  -2  FRCC(SE)  88  -1  MAAC(NE)  81  +3  MAIN(CTR)  81  -=
1  MAPP(HP)  80  -1  NPCC(NE)  76  +1  SERC(SE)  87  NC  SPP(SP)  90  NC  W=
SCC(NW)  64  -3  WSCC(RK)  81  -2  WSCC(SW)  83  NC      Range Standard Dev=
iation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   74 80 67 58 82 80 8=
7 81  Max    80 87 77 64 85 87 91 83  Min     70 75 63 53 80 77 84 80  Rang=
e  10 12 14 12 6 10 7 3  StD-P  2.5 4.0 4.1 4.4 1.9 2.7 2.1 1.1  Count  6 6=
 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001.  Syncrasy's C=
hoice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarg=
e)     ECAR(CTR)  82  NC  ERCOT(SP)  92  -2  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  81=
  NC  MAIN(CTR)  83  NC  MAPP(HP)  76  -2  NPCC(NE)  75  +1  SERC(SE)  89  =
NC  SPP(SP)  90  -1  WSCC(NW)  67  +3  WSCC(RK)  75  -2  WSCC(SW)  82  NC  =
    Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean=
   73 73 65 55 73 80 85 76  Max    80 86 77 67 81 88 92 82       65 59 59 4=
0 53 72 73 57  Range  15 27 18 27 28 16 19 25  StD-P  3.1 8.2 4.0 5.2 6.7 3=
.0 4.1 6.3  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 discussion:  There is still =
no one model that meets my needs with regards to the evolving long term pat=
tern. The European looks much too cold in the NE, the MRF as usual has flip=
ped and now surges warm air into the NE and looks too warm there. The Canad=
ian looks more reasonable in the East, but too strong and too far South wit=
h a trough in the West. Where there seems to be agreement is in the middle =
of the nation where a large ridge should reside. The ridge will result in a=
 warmer than normal pattern in my view from the SW to the Central Plains to=
 the Great Lakes. However, the departures do not look too significant. In a=
ddition there still appears to be opportunity for rainfall especially for t=
he South and also East of the Mississippi. With all of the model uncertaint=
y East and West, pattern recognition indicates to me that troughs will prev=
ail in the NW a! nd NE given the ridge in the middle. The NW trough may be =
a little stronger than seasonal norms resulting in more cooler than normal =
air for the PNW. The NE trough looks seasonal to me. These trends continue =
to reflect thoughts I have advertised all week long, so there is no real ch=
ange from previous forecasts.  Day 6: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 200=
1.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on=
 image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  83  +1  ERCOT(SP)  91  -2  FRCC(SE)  90  =
+1  MAAC(NE)  82  NC  MAIN(CTR)  79  -2  MAPP(HP)  72  -1  NPCC(NE)  78  +1=
  SERC(SE)  88  NC  SPP(SP)  84  -3  WSCC(NW)  71  +2  WSCC(RK)  73  +1  WS=
CC(SW)  82  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  S=
E  SP  SW   Mean   74 69 68 65 70 81 87 82  Max    78 77 80 71 75 88 90 83 =
 Min     70 62 63 59 66 79 85 80  Range  8 15 17 12 9 9 5 4  StD-P  3.0 5.8=
 4.9 3.6 2.8 2.8 1.4 1.5  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast =
for Wed, Jun 13, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matri=
x          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  79  -1  ERCOT(SP)  89=
  -3  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  80  -2  MAIN(CTR)  75  -1  MAPP(HP)  72  =
+2  NPCC(NE)  76  -2  SERC(SE)  87  -1  SPP(SP)  80  -2  WSCC(NW)  74  +2  =
WSCC(RK)  74  +2  WSCC(SW)  83  +1      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  C=
T  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   69 68 66 69 73 81 84 84  Max    75 7=
3 77 74 76 87 87 88  Min     66 64 60 67 70 79 79 82  Range  9 9 17 6 6 8 8=
 6  StD-P  2.7 3.6 4.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.6  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8:=
 Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. =
  Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  79 =
 +10  ERCOT(SP)  89  +4  FRCC(SE)  89  +11  MAAC(NE)  80  +6  MAIN(CTR)  77=
  +13  MAPP(HP)  75  +12  NPCC(NE)  76  +9  SERC(SE)  86  +7  SPP(SP)  85  =
+11  WSCC(NW)  75  +1  WSCC(RK)  78  +3  WSCC(SW)  84  +4      Range Standa=
rd Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   71 77 67 70 8=
0 81 84 86  Max    76 79 77 75 80 87 89 89  Min     68 75 62 67 79 79 81 84=
  Range  9 4 15 8 1 8 8 5  StD-P  2.1 1.8 4.5 2.5 0.4 2.4 2.6 2.1  Count  5=
 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun 15, 2001.  Syncrasy's=
 Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enla=
rge)     ECAR(CTR)  74  +13  ERCOT(SP)  83  -1  FRCC(SE)  80  +1  MAAC(NE) =
 73  +3  MAIN(CTR)  75  +14  MAPP(HP)  75  +14  NPCC(NE)  66  +1  SERC(SE) =
 78  +1  SPP(SP)  85  +8  WSCC(NW)  67  -13  WSCC(RK)  77  -1  WSCC(SW)  84=
  +4      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW =
  Mean   73 80 64 70 84 78 83 85  Max    75 85 68 78 85 79 84 87  Min     7=
0 76 59 67 83 77 83 84  Range  5 10 10 11 3 2 1 3  StD-P  2.1 4.6 4.4 3.8 1=
.3 0.7 0.4 1.6  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Sat, =
Jun 16, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix        =
  (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  75  +16  ERCOT(SP)  85  +2  FR=
CC(SE)  80  +1  MAAC(NE)  74  +10  MAIN(CTR)  75  +16  MAPP(HP)  69  +10  N=
PCC(NE)  68  +8  SERC(SE)  78  +1  SPP(SP)  86  +11  WSCC(NW)  69  -9  WSCC=
(RK)  73  -3  WSCC(SW)  81  +2      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  H=
P  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   65 65 64 61 69 74 78 72  Max    73 70 70=
 69 78 78 86 81  Min     56 60 57 49 59 69 70 64  Range  18 10 14 20 19 9 1=
6 17  StD-P  8.4 4.1 6.6 8.3 8.9 4.5 7.9 8.5  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Tra=
der Summary is designed around and formatted for the  Plasma displays, Rain=
bowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncras=
y.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     =09
=09=09    909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314     713.228.8470  Main    www.syncrasy=
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